Ren Zeping the stock market return performance bond market short-term shocks medium-term bullish utc行家

Ren Zeping: the stock market return performance bond market short-term shocks medium-term bullish Sina Financial App: Live on-line blogger to listen to expert guidance on forest stock selection Jiepan Niugu tournament from WeChat public number Zeping macro author Ren Zeping introduction: in the economic L, prices rose, deleveraging, Fed rate hike expectations background. Monetary policy in the short term is expected to continue to maintain a neutral, steady growth to rely more on fiscal policy. With 2014-2015 years to monetary policy, supplemented by fiscal policy mix is different, after 2016 may gradually turn to finance based, supplemented by currency, which means that the future will expand the deficit, force PPP. Abstract: the international economy: non-agricultural than expected, raising interest rates or delayed, G20 will be held. August U.S. nonfarm payrolls 151 thousand, expected to be 180 thousand, the former value of 255 thousand. After the publication of the data, 9, 11, respectively, the rate hike is expected to decrease from 36%, 40.1%, 59% to 22%, 28.7%, 55.4%. Taking into account the two quarter GDP growth rate is lower than expected, the U.S. presidential election and other factors, in September the Fed rate hike is still small, the second half of the year to maintain the maximum interest rate hike, the probability is in the judgment of the year in December. September 4-5 G20 summit held on the growth of innovation, structural reform, trade and investment cooperation, overcapacity, financial and monetary exchange rate and other issues to discuss. Domestic economy: PMI picks up, economy L type. August manufacturing PMI50.4, expected 49.8, the former value of 49.9, the production index, new orders, new export orders, raw materials prices are picking up. We maintain the economic L type judgment, mainly because the real demand may not be as bad as the macro data response, and supply contraction than expected. This week, real estate sales continue strong, especially the first Shanghai transactions, or for the purchase is expected to lead to the demand for early release, along with Suzhou, Nanjing, Xiamen city are the focus of a new round of credit limit restriction policy, observation of the effect on the future of the real estate sales prices to be. Steel mills in August continued to expand profitability, the impact of G20 blast furnace started, the price of rebar to re. This week the price of vegetables rose, pork prices fell. Currency: overnight tight liquidity, bond yields rose. This week the central bank to achieve a net return of 173 billion 500 million yuan of money. Since last week, the central bank since the restart, continuous operation 14 days reverse repurchase, the overnight funds face tight, this week 1 days interbank repo rate by 2.0706% over the weekend and continued to rise to 2.0913%. As of September 2nd, 10 year bond yields rose 5.25BP to 2.7452%. The recent devaluation of the RMB continued to depreciate this week, the U.S. dollar against the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar and the spot exchange rate of RMB devaluation 0.36% and 0.17%, respectively, the offshore RMB devaluation of 0.06%. Policy: fiscal based, supplemented by currency. By prices, deleveraging and Fed rate hike expectations and other constraints, monetary policy will remain neutral in the short term, the future of fiscal policy to finance, supplemented by. Xi Jinping chaired the twenty-seventh meeting of the central leading group comprehensively deepen reform相关的主题文章: