Obama announced a high-profile visit to Cuba, a few stone carving-小坂めぐる

Obama announced a high-profile visit to Cuba, "a few stone carving"? The United States President Obama data figure original title: Obama announced a high-profile visit to Cuba, "a few stone carving"? The term has no many observers – Obama announced a high-profile visit to Cuba, as authorities in order to accumulate political legacy, but also to low cost, stable geopolitical benefits in Latin America "return to Asia strategy. According to reports, the day before the first president Obama through the personal twitter account, is through the White House official, both announced that Obama will be in the mid to late 3 to Cuba for a historic visit to the news. And this has aroused widespread concern in international public opinion. After all, if the move will take place, is not a small diplomatic action, it will break the heads of ancient beauty between the two countries in 88 years "unpopular" impasse. Obama, who has only ten months left, has a lot of intentions to announce his visit to cuba. Internally, this will help to accumulate the political legacy of the party and benefit the president of the party. For the Obama administration’s policy towards the ancient, the mainstream views of the two parties in the United States are quite different. For the Democratic Party, the change of "contact" has always been the party’s policy tradition against the ideology of different countries. Today, the Cuban society’s enthusiasm for the improvement of ancient American relations and the relaxation of the Cuban government’s attitude towards the United States have made the Democratic Party have some capital to publicize the benefits of "contact" strategy, and it is possible to sow some seeds of "Color Revolution" during the visit. The policy tradition of the Republican Party is "containment", which means that the "contact" strategy is tantamount to appeasing the enemy and offering bribes. So when George W. Bush was in office, the United States had been reluctant to improve relations with cuba. Most of the power to end sanctions against Cuba is in the hands of Republicans who control the congress. In the Republican Party resolutely resist the ancient "humble", the Obama administration and make enough strength to pull out or do some support, you can do the forced action. At the same time, in the current election fiery push, fierce competition in the context of the party, Obama’s move also help to help the candidates consolidate the ticket warehouse. Among the Republican candidates, some in the Cuban immigrant’s influence is not small, but now the party is lacking spirit of cooperation — congressional leaders without action, presidential candidates lack of appeal, the administration policy of opposition, then fierce words can only solve it. Cruz said that Obama’s visit was "definitely a mistake"; Jeb Bush called the visit "a tragedy that contributed to the legitimacy of the Castro regime"". The Republican anxiety is perhaps the Democratic dividend, Obama’s initiative, is expected to dig the moderate Republican foundation, weakening the political integration in the election of the party. Externally, the move is conducive to stabilizing the Latin American geopolitical situation, alienating the relationship between Cuba and North Korea, and highlighting the strategy of returning to the Asia Pacific region. Over the past few years, the strategy is considered less important area, the Obama administration has been adhering to the "quick" strategy, the need to face job done, but calculated in resource input. In the Middle East, and in Latin America, the Obama administration did not make a particularly strong strategic investment, but to China and the rapid development of relations in the region to maintain high vigilance 4

奥巴马高调宣布访古巴“一箭几雕”? 美国总统奥巴马 资料图   原标题:奥巴马高调宣布访古巴“一箭几雕”?   ■ 观察家   任期已无多的奥巴马高调宣布访古巴,既是为了积累当局政治遗产,也是为了低成本地稳定拉美地缘、造益于“重返亚太”战略。   据报道,日前,先是总统奥巴马通过个人推特账户,后是通过白宫官方,双双宣布了奥巴马将于3月中下旬对古巴进行历史性访问的消息。而这也引发国际舆论广泛关注。毕竟,如果此举成行,将是个不小的外交举动,这将打破美古两国元首88年来“互不待见”的僵局。   对任期只剩下十个月的奥巴马来说,高调宣布访古巴,有着多重用意。对内,此举有助于积累当局政治遗产、造福本党总统参选人。   对于奥巴马政府的对古政策,美国国内两党主流看法迥异。对于民主党而言,以“接触”求变一直是该党对付意识形态相异国家的政策传统。如今古巴社会对美古关系改善的热情、古巴政府对美国态度的和缓,已经让民主党有了一些向民众宣传“接触”战略好处的资本,没准访问过程中还能播下些“颜色革命”的种子呢。   共和党的政策传统是以“遏制”求变,认为“接触”战略无异于向敌人绥靖和行贿。所以小布什在任时,美国一直不愿意深度改善与古巴关系。结束对古巴制裁的权力,也大多攥在控制国会的共和党手里。在共和党坚决抵制对古“低三下四”的情况下,奥巴马政府与其使足了劲也抠不出来支持,还不如做一些没有你也能成事的倒逼动作。   同时,在当前大选火热推进、政党激烈竞争的背景下,奥巴马此举也有助于帮助本党参选人巩固票仓。在共和党参选人中,有几位在古巴裔移民中的影响力不小,但现在本党犹如一盘散沙――国会领袖没有行动力、总统参选人缺乏号召力,对行政当局政策的反对,再激烈只能解口舌之便。克鲁兹称,奥巴马的访问“绝对是一个错误”;杰布・布什把访问称作一次为卡斯特罗政权贡献合法性的“悲剧”。共和党的焦虑也许正是民主党的红利,奥巴马的积极主动,有望深挖共和党温和派的墙脚,削弱该党在大选中的政治整合力。   对外,此举有利于低成本地稳定拉美地缘、离间古巴朝鲜关系、突出“重返亚太”战略。   过去数年来,对于战略上被认为没那么重要的地区,奥巴马政府一直在坚持“蜻蜓点水”战略,必要的面子工程做足,但在资源投入上精心算计。在中东如此,在拉美也是,奥巴马政府没有做出特别有力的战略投入,却对中国与该地区关系的快速发展保持高度警惕,以至于出现了弥补战略互信落差的需求。古巴一直是“反美主义”的扛旗者,美古关系再向前一小步,不必投入太多,却有望改善美国在拉美地区的政治声望。届时,奥巴马还会顺访阿根廷,与美国认为不那么“左”的新总统首晤,营造对“门罗主义”有利的政治氛围。   此时向古巴示好,对美国亚太政策的间接帮助也不小。长期以来,美国在全世界有好几个“死对头”国家,伊朗、古巴、朝鲜都位列其中,而这三个国家间的紧密关系,也已经发展为“传统友谊”。奥巴马政府此时进一步拉近美古关系,有望收到一定的政治离间效果,虽不至于从经济和安全上疏离这几个国家,但至少可削弱其合力。在半岛军事紧张的当口,也能让朝鲜受到些孤立感。   帮助本党参选人问鼎总统宝座、提前谱写好下届政府政策序曲,是奥巴马保卫政治遗产的最佳途径。融冰?拉票?无论如何,他走了一步用心颇深的棋。   □史泽华(学者) 责任编辑:黄睿 SN224相关的主题文章: